Week Beginning Monday 21st January 2019

THIS MORNING’S LONDON LIFFE WHEAT FUTURES:

  • JANUARY 2019 – £168.35/T (DOWN £3.95/T ON THE WEEK)
  • MAY 2019 – £172.65/T (DOWN £3.85/T ON THE WEEK)
  • NOVEMBER 2019 – £155.90/T (DOWN £3.60/T ON THE WEEK)
  • JANUARY 2020 – £155.90/T (DOWN £3.50/T ON THE WEEK)
  • MAY 2020 – £162.40/T (DOWN £2.55/T ON THE WEEK)

 

POUND Vs EURO – 1.1289 (LAST WEEK – 1.1192)

 

Currency has suffered another volatile week with the value of sterling fluctuating anywhere from 1.10 to 1.14 over the past few days alone. As a result, ex-farm values are difficult to pinpoint.

Further Brexit talks are now underway ahead of the next parliamentary vote on the 29th January regarding a “redrafted” withdrawal agreement. Opinions are mixed but there appears to be a general opinion that there could be room for compromise, hence the slight strengthening of the pound towards the end of last week.

 

It has been a slow start to the week this morning as the Chicago market remains closed for the Martin Luther King Jnr Holiday.

Old crop wheat is currently valued in the region of £172.00/T ex-farm for spot collection. Beyond the end of March, market interest is minimal as we theoretically enter into “post-Brexit” territory.

As for new crop, buyer demand is slightly better for harvest movement but with values slipping into the late £140.00’s/T ex-farm, sellers are frustrated. However, with £150.00/T ex-farm still on the table for September collection, this should certainly be worth some consideration.

 

We have seen a slight flurry of seed enquires over the past weeks as growers look ahead to the spring – overall availability is becoming increasingly limited but there is stock of several spring barley varieties alongside a small amount of spring oat seed. Please speak with the office for more information.

 

There are some interesting numbers on the AHDB this morning which I thought I would pass on. Over the past couple of weeks, there has been a bearish tone to the new crop London LIFFE wheat futures and markets have been consequentially subdued – longer term commitments from both the buyers and sellers have been slow. However, when you put these prices into context, they still represent extremely good value.

  • At £155.90/T, the London LIFFE wheat future for November 2019 is £14.50/T higher than the value of the London LIFFE wheat future for November 2018 at this time last year (another £420.00 per load).
  • Furthermore, the current price is almost £20.00/T higher than the five-year average (£580.00 per load).

 

According to Strategie Grains (via AHDB), “cereal production for harvest 2019 is forecast to increase by 11% year on year following this seasons drought damaged crop”. In detail:

  • Soft wheat production forecast = 146.4 million tonnes, a 15% increase on production in 2018. The total area drilled is believed to be up 5% year on year.
  • Barley production forecast = 61.8 million tonnes, an 11% increase year on year.
  • Maize production forecast = 62.4 million tonnes, a 4% increase year on year. They are anticipating that the largest area for four years will be drilled.

 

Although harvest is months away yet and a lot could happen in that time, condition sin Europe have been extremely favourable so far this season and the majority all autumn drilled crops are in excellent health. However, with yields yet to be fully determined, any short-term weather issues could influence prices.

 

With Brexit talks continuing to dominate the headlines, there is little fresh news emanating from the Black Sea. Crops in the Ukraine are however reported to be in a “good condition” and adequate snow cover is apparently insulating crops during the colder months.

Over in Russia, wheat exports are slowing as the temperatures drop as expected, but the quantities being exported are still larger than normal. We should have confirmation of this over the coming weeks with the release of the next WASDE report from the USDA – this will be worth looking out for.

 


Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *