A Russian Harvest Update from the HGCA

The HGCA yesterday published a rather interesting update on this year’s Russian Harvest…. They comment that:

“Russian grain yields have fallen by 27% year-on-year to 1.92t/hectare, according to the Russian Agriculture Ministry. The Ministry still expects a grain harvest of 75Mt, a 20% reduction on last season. The exportable surplus is expected to be 12Mt.

As of 28 August, Russia had harvested 62% of the grain harvest, and production thus far has been 53.4Mt, 6.9Mt below this time last year. It should be noted that this is still ahead of the 42Mt which had been harvested by the same point in 2010 – the year in which Russia imposed its export ban.

However, there are still concerns that Russia may decide to introduce export restrictions as some analysts predict that the Russian wheat harvest may be less than the amount produced in 2010 (41.5Mt). Ministers will meet on Friday to decide on the next steps Russia should take in the wake of the drought affected harvest.

With these supply issues in mind, international trade remains strong. Tunisia’s state grain agency has bought 150,000t of milling wheat, while the Syrian state grain agency has issued a tender for 100,000t of soft milling wheat. If Russian supply is restricted further demand could switch to key European producers France and Germany or US supplies.

Winter sowing is also underway in Russia with 7% of the intended 16.8million hectares already planted. Last year Russia planted 16.1Mha.”

Remember back to 2010 when the overall grains harvest was poor enough to introduce an export ban… Total tonnages came in at a total of 40.5M/t… Watch this space.


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