Markets unchanged as further USDA data looms

Feed wheat values are once again generally unchanged this week as markets continue to tread water ahead of this season’s impending American maize corn harvest.

Mild and dry weather in the south-east has made way for combining of the potentially record breaking crop to begin but we are yet to hear of any ‘official’ yield and quality reports.

Feed wheat for spot collection is currently trading at £155/T ex-farm for November with movement into next March/April offering £160/T ex-farm. Feed barley is trading at a £20-23/T discount to feed wheat.

As for anything of any quality, an additional although slightly smaller shipment of German milling wheat into the Hull Dock hasn’t exactly encouraged local end-users into buying our UK equivalent this week.

Group 1 bread making varieties would make £170/T ex-farm on full specification whilst lower specification varieties would make around £8/T less. As for soft milling varieties, buyer demand has been extremely thin this week. In theory, full specification group 3 varieties should be worth a £5-7/T premium for November/December – but this of course only applies with buyer interest.

Fresh news is thin on the ground this week although there is a little situation beginning to develop over in the Black Sea. After getting off to what can only be described as a flying start, harvesting progress in Russia has come to a standstill over the past seven days as heavy rains stall progress. Around 25% of the total cereals crop is still believed to be in the field and the forecast for the next 7-10 days doesn’t exactly give any opportunity to get the remaining fields cut.

A similar situation is also present in the Ukraine – 30% of this season’s cereal crop is still left to be cut, again due to severely wet weather and the forecast for the week ahead isn’t exactly encouraging.

In the more southern regions, excess rainfall is also causing delays to winter planting progress with some regions falling significantly behind on what we would normally expect given the time of year.

It is far too early to make any assumptions regarding yields and quality at this stage so treat this with caution – it could however be one to watch over the next couple of weeks, particularly for those of you who are looking to secure some additional pre-Christmas movement.

Meanwhile OSR values have continued to fluctuate around the £290/T ex-farm mark for October collection whilst movement into the New Year is falling just short of £295/T ex-farm.

Prospects in the short term are still continuing to offer little excitement but there does remain some potential for values in the long term.

Any damage caused by the flash August drought in America should be confirmed by early November as their harvest comes to a close. Market attention is also beginning to turn towards South American soyabean planting (Brazil typically begins planting in early October, Argentina in early November) which is currently being delayed in North Brazil due to dry weather. Watch this space.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.