October’s WASDE from the USDA
Posted by Anderson Grain Marketing on Oct 15, 2012 in AGM News | 0 comments
To view this month’s estimates in full PDF format please see:
http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/latest.pdf
If 40 pages dont exactly appeal, here are a few key points to consider:
Wheat:
US wheat ending stocks for the 2012-13 season are lowered 44 million bushels (about 1.2M/T). Production of the grain was raised slightly, but both feed and residual uses were increased far beyond this.
Global wheat ending stocks for the 2012-13 season are lowered 6.2M/T. Production for Australia is lowered 3M/T as a ‘continuation of dryness throughout September during the critical flowering and grain fill stages has reduced yield potential for this year’s crop’. Production for Russia is also lowered 1M/T, reflecting the latest harvest reports that indicate lower yields and harvested area for spring wheat. A little closer to home, production is lowered 0.8M/T for EU-27, predominantly due to a poor harvest here in the UK.
Global wheat consumption for 2012-13 is lowered 2.4M/T. Although we are seeing higher use in the US, Canada and EU-27, we are seeing far lower use in Russia, India and Vietnam.
Maize Corn:
US maize corn production is lowered 21 million bushels with yields forecast at around 122/BPA (bushels per acre), down 0.8/BPA from last month.
Global maize corn production for 2012-13 is lowered 2M/T with reductions for EU-27, Serbia and the US.
Oilseeds:
US oilseed production for 2012-13 is projected at 88.2M/T, up 6.3M/T from last month. Soybean production is forecast at 2.86 billion bushels, up 226 million from last month due to both a larger-than-expected harvested area and better-than-expected yield.
Global oilseed production for 2012-13 is projected at 457.7M/T, up 4.6M/T from last month. Global soybean production is projected at 264.3M/T, up 6.2M/T from last month. This however is dependent on good production is South America which, if all goes to plan (and we know how changeable the weather can be), won’t even be available until next April/May time anyway – which slightly softened the fall for ex-farm prices.
The report then is generally perceived as being bullish for maize corn and wheat, but neutral-bearish for soybeans.