T.C.P.

So, it would appear, that ‘Life’ as we know it is about to take a big gargle of TCP.  (TCP is a mild antiseptic, produced in France by Laboratoires Chemineau in Vouvray and sold in the United Kingdom by Omega Pharma. TCP was introduced in 1918. The brand name comes from its original chemical name, which was trichlorophenylmethyliodosalicyl).   Commonly used in my childhood for treating sore throats, skinned knees, bites and stings!

Alternatively:  Trump. Covid. Putin. 

Trump, has lost the presidential election, although he would appear to be doing his best to portray the worst traits that you would not wish for in a young child, that is to say temper tantrums, lying and being a bad loser.  

COVID-19, is imminently about to be put to the sword by a vaccine, hopefully saving the vast majority from the only alternative cure for the pandemic, which would be for all of us to have it and take our chances.

Putin, Moscow sources have claimed is planning to quit early next year amid growing fears for his health and rumours that he has Parkinson’s Disease.  Alina Kabaeva (google her), Putin’s ex Olympic gymnast/glam model lover who was once dubbed ‘Russia’s most flexible woman’ is reportedly begging him to quit.

Here in the UK, combine all the above and throw in some slightly better Brexit news and the result is a buoyant stock market with Sterling trading above 1.12 Euro and 1.32 Dollar.  For agricultural commodities, the ‘Fund Money’ from speculators or investors continues to pour into the market and drive the Chicago, Kansas, Paris and London futures markets ever higher.

Consequently, this last week whilst being busy confirming hectarage for Spring Malting Barley, Naked Oat and Rye Buy-Back Contracts we have paid more for November and December Wheat, OSR and Barley than at any time previously in this current crop year.  It all just goes to show that no matter how close you are to the market or how much information you have, you never truly know where the next market influence will come from or what the next market move will be.  Tuesday evenings USDA, WASDE (World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimate) offered little fresh information and did little to point the market readers in any direction.

For those who are long term readers you will know that you can enter the Casino, pockets brimming with reports of Weather, Crops, Yields, Currency, World stocks, prepared to bet all on red, black or any number that takes your fancy. Or you could cash all your reports and current market information for their value on the day you choose to walk in through the door, happy in the knowledge you have traded at levels above and beyond any budget expectations.  To quote a good Customer who sold wheat on Tuesday this week, ‘how can you not, its money in the Bank’.

Or to para-phrase last month’s article it is all about Risk management.

Finally, there is one thing I remember about the use of TCP when I had a sore throat or skinned knees.  It used to sting like a bugger!  There is also one thing my years in the Grain Trade have taught me, and that is that one day this Bull market will turn, and when it does, for those caught long of stocks, it will sting like bugger!