Week Beginning 4th May 2015

• The London LIFFE wheat future for May 2015 closed at £111.90/T on Friday evening – £1.50/T lower than the week previous. As for new crop wheat values, the London LIFFE wheat future for November 2015 closed at £120.25/T on Friday evening  – £3.65/T lower than the week previous. Many European countries were closed yesterday for the May Bank Holiday and markets are therefore slow to start this morning. In opening trade the London LIFFE wheat future for November 2015 has opened £1.70/T lower at £118.55/T.
• Feed wheat for spot collection this month is currently valued in the region of £110.00/T – £112.00/T ex-farm. Further forward, June/July collection is offering a small premium although there are some limited opportunities for collection in the first part of August – please contact the office if this is of any interest you.
• As for new crop wheat, feed wheat for as available collection off the combine is valued in the region of £110.00/T this morning. Further forward, £115.00/T – £117.00/T ex-farm currently looks like a realistic (and perhaps reasonable) offer for November/December collection.
• Over in the black sea, the Ukraine have now drilled 2.09 million hectares worth of land with spring grains; this is 91% of trade expectations – not a bad effort given that many feared that financial / economic pressures would discourage farmers to drill land with spring grains. As for neighbouring Russia, we should have a clearer idea of spring planting progress later in the week.
• Rainfall across the west and east coast of Australia has improved prospects for the 2015-2016 wheat crop following concerns for the recent dry weather. Planting of next season’s winter wheat crop is now well underway and forecasts by the International grains Council and the HGCA suggest that the crop could reach 27 million tonnes. If realised, this would be a 3.4 million tonne increase on this season’s output. Long term weather forecasts are also favourable for the next two months which could add pressure to new crop wheat values further afield.
• French maize corn planting is now 75% complete and around 30% of this has now emerged. Winter wheat crops there are also developing well and 91% of winter crops are described as being in a ‘good condition’ by the French Ministry of Agriculture. 90% of winter barley crops are also said to be in a ‘very good condition’.
• Old crop OSR values have suffered a volatile week over the last seven days although this appears to be attributed to ‘technical’ influences rather than anything fundamental. Consequently, prices are very difficult to quote this morning- values fell £7.00/T on Friday evening (1^st May) but are £4.00/T higher in opening trade this morning. However, the pound against the Euro appears to be weakening slightly this afternoon which could further improve things as UK export competitiveness improves. £250.00 – £255.00/T ex-farm currently look like realistic offers for spot collection.
• According to the South American Grain Exchange, the area planted to soybeans in Argentina was actually 2% lower than previously thought. However, the exchange have simultaneously increased their output forecast by 1.5 million tonnes. Consequently, Argentinian soybean production is now expected to reach the 60 million tonne mark. If realised, this would be 5.5 million tonnes more than Argentina’s previous record (back in 2010) and 3 million tonnes more than the US Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) current forecast. Given that an estimated 62% of this season’s Argentinian crop is now believed to have been harvested, these figures are credited with being attributed to the ‘realisation of good yields’. It will be interesting to see if the USDA makes any adjustments of their own in this month’s edition of the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) which is due on the 12^th May.