Week Beginning Tuesday 29th May 2018
Posted by Anderson Grain Marketing on Nov 6, 2018 in AGM News | 0 comments
For anyone left with old crop wheat, wheat this morning is valued at £165.00/T ex-farm if you would like to discuss your movement please speak with the office. Old crop (soft) biscuit wheat is valued at £170.00/T ex-farm. New crop feed wheat is again higher at £155.00/T ex-farm for harvest and £160.00/T ex-farm for November.
Old crop feed barley is down slightly at £145.00/T ex-farm, and new crop barley is unchanged £135.00/T ex-farm for harvest.
Old crop oilseed rape is now trading at £296/7/T ex-farm for June and new crop OSR is valued at £295.00/T ex-farm for August collection.
The ongoing trade war between the US and China has temporarily been put on hold while a deal is negotiated. With the threat of a 25% tariff on soybean, China looked for soybeans elsewhere, purchasing quantities of Brazilian soybeans. This put pressure on USA soybean prices, which were further compounded following the devaluation of the Brazilian currency against the dollar.
The recent activity in the soybean market combined with the rise in crude oil prices and the uncertainty in global affairs between US and China have started to have a long overdue impact on the European rapeseed market for both; old crop and new crop.
On the back of continued weather concerns across the world, UK wheat futures have continued to look attractive.
The US harvest is fast approaching, but the current dry conditions are taking its toll on the Hard Red Winter Wheat areas. However, with much needed rain in sight it will still take a significant amount of rainfall to improve the crop conditions.
The Russian Agriculture ministry released figures (23rd of May) of a 5-million-ton reduction for grain production due to extreme weather conditions. Russia is usually the worlds cheapest source and a huge exporter of wheat. The market currently seems to have taken much of this forecast reduction in to account. However, if reductions are seen across different countries or a major weather event was to occur, prices could be driven on the back of this.
EU Commission MARS report also released on the 23rd of May giving a statement that “crops look in good condition and recent warm weather has boosted growth but may be a concern for late sown spring crops with insufficient root development”. The 2018 UK production estimations are still likely to be in the same region as last years and therefore UK exports are unlikely to take up the extra imports needed across he world.