AGM Blog



Market Update

Posted by on Feb 17, 2020 in AGM News | 0 comments

Market Update

The Euro has fallen to its lowest level against the dollar since April 2017 at $1.08. This is thought to be due to the concerns surrounding the spread of coronavirus weighing heavily on the markets. Significantly, the pound broke the 1.20 mark against the euro last week. This morning, it is trading at 1.2028, the highest level seen since June 2016. Despite my constant reminder to concentrate on “the bigger picture” instead of the view from the tractor cab, the relationship between new crop UK wheat futures and UK rainfall...

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THE CHINA SYNDROME

Posted by on Feb 12, 2020 in AGM News | 0 comments

THE CHINA SYNDROME

Just when you thought it was safe to go outside, along comes storm Ciara and puts all the good work that was done on the land and in the potential wheat field the week before back in the ‘bin’.  Add to our cropping issues, the continued Coronavirus problems and its impact on the global stock and commodity markets and therefore the physical trade and movement of money, goods and people around the world, and there are more than just dark rain clouds around. Since the first reported death on January 11th, the Shanghai stock...

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2020 CLOUDY VISION

Posted by on Feb 12, 2020 in AGM News | 0 comments

2020 CLOUDY VISION

So, here we are, New Year, New Government, Brexit Done! But not much in the ‘Farming World’ is any clearer than it was in 2019.  The relative firmness of the pre-Christmas wheat market has continued through into the new year as it becomes apparent that consumers (millers and feed compounders) have a significant amount of wheat to purchase for delivery January through to the End of June.  The ex-farm value of wheat has therefore remained firm throughout the first half of January and typically bids that are being refused on farm...

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HEDGE YOUR BETS

Posted by on Feb 12, 2020 in AGM News | 0 comments

HEDGE YOUR BETS

One month on from our article ‘Contrarian Economics’ written for October and the price of spot feed wheat on farm in Yorkshire has risen £10.00 per tonne.  The Politicians living in the ‘southeast bubble’ remain out of step with the rest of the country who are sick to the back teeth of Brexit, have voted for yet another extension all be it a ‘Flex tension’.  For the grain trade and cereal farmers this has allowed further exports of our potential surplus crop as sterling continues to flatline at 1.16 Euro and 1.28 US...

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CONTRARIAN ECONOMICS

Posted by on Feb 12, 2020 in AGM News | 0 comments

CONTRARIAN ECONOMICS

The grain market is currently a mix of fundamentals, weather and politics. The fundamental numbers suggest that UK harvest 2019 according to DEFRA was 16.283 million tonnes of wheat. 8.180 million tonnes of barley, 1.082 million tonnes of Oats, and 1.750 million tonnes of OSR was a bumper crop. The UK will need to export over 2 million tonnes of grain to avoid having a large surplus.  Latest estimates would have us believe that we will have exported about 800,000 tonnes before the current Brexit deadline date of 31st...

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NOBODY KNOWS

Posted by on Feb 12, 2020 in AGM News | 0 comments

NOBODY KNOWS

All around the county you can hear it, the evening silence, the distinctive drum of a combine harvester working away is done for another year.  Autumn approaches, forward harvest grain sales have been delivered, surplus that would not go in the shed has been sold spot and moved also and the roller shutter door is now firmly shut on the grain store.  Wheat harvest 2019 has been a whopper, estimates have moved from 15.0 million tonnes pre combine up to 16.5 million actual tonnes in the shed.  Globally increasing maize...

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Colonel John “Hannibal” Smith (The A-Team)

Posted by on Feb 12, 2020 in AGM News | 0 comments

Colonel John “Hannibal” Smith (The A-Team)

Let’s start with the bad news.  Its the middle of August, the price of harvest 2019 feed wheat ex farm in has fallen the best part of £20 per tonne over the last 5 months.  It’s raining and harvest is currently a grab a bit where you can operation, with the bulk of Yorkshire wheat still in the field. Last Mondays USDA World crop production report produced an unexpected increase in in US corn production and larger than expected corn ending stocks.  Whilst simultaneously quoting World wheat production at 768.07...

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CORPORAL JONES

Posted by on Feb 12, 2020 in AGM News | 0 comments

CORPORAL JONES

Some might frown at blowing your own trumpet, but if you don’t most likely no one else will.  A brief look back over the last 5 months comments in this paper, the common theme has been that the price of wheat for harvest 2019 was not to be sniffed at, forward sales at the prices being offered should not be dismissed as a poor price.  At the time of writing, this month’s article old crop July wheat is in plentiful supply leaving the farm gate at £137 per tonne!  There is not a single consumer in our region that will look at...

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Week Beginning Monday 15th July 2019

Posted by on Jul 15, 2019 in AGM News | 0 comments

Week Beginning Monday 15th July 2019

    TODAY’S LONDON LIFFE WHEAT FUTURES: November 2019 – £149.50/T May 2020 – £154.05/T November 2020 – £151.75/T March – 2021 – £157.25/T   From what I can gather online from the twittersphere, winter barley harvesting is now as far north as Grantham with the bulk of the action in Norfolk and the South Coast. Yields are anywhere from 7 tonnes per hectare to 10 tonnes per hectare alongside good bushel weights. Regardless, it remains early days yet and the bulk of the crops harvested are 6 row...

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SMARTER THAN THE AVERAGE BEAR

Posted by on Jun 27, 2019 in AGM News | 0 comments

SMARTER THAN THE AVERAGE BEAR

The New Crop wheat market appears to have stalled. After a brief rally at the end of May, the value of wheat for September move has now slipped well below most farmers perceived ideas of a good price.  Based on the values received through last year’s drought affected harvest it is easy to see why.  The price of September 2018 wheat on the 15th of August of that year was around £180 per tonne ex farm. Currently, September 2019 wheat is some way below that figure. The key words above are undoubtedly ‘perceived ideas of a good...

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