AGM Blog



Market Update

Posted by on Mar 16, 2020 in AGM News | 0 comments

Market Update

I was undecided on writing a report this morning as I suddenly feel highly underqualified to provide you with a market commentary! But below are a few points worth noting. After topping 1.20 against the value of the euro earlier in the year post Brexit, the pound has dropped to 1.09 this morning. Usually, this would greatly benefit UK grain values as a weaker pound usually equates to greater export competitiveness. However, with all financial markets under pressure, the weaker pound has merely acted as “damage control” over the...

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Under Pressure

Posted by on Mar 13, 2020 in AGM News | 0 comments

Under Pressure

‘It’s the terror of knowing what the world is about’ ‘Turned away from it all like a blind man’ ‘Sat on a fence but it don’t work.’ One month on and the selected lines taken from the song Under Pressure by Queen seem to sum up the on-going events in the world at large and those closer to home in the grain trade also. Since we last wrote in February, stock markets around the world have fallen dramatically and News commentators are talking of a 2008 style collapse.  Oil prices this week fell to levels 30...

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Market Update

Posted by on Mar 9, 2020 in AGM News | 0 comments

Market Update

The FTSE 100 has plunged 8.5% this morning as its value is decreased by a staggering £130 billion, a freefall not seen since the 2008 financial crash. UK funds appear to be “preparing for the worst as it follows the global downward trend. The price of oil had already fallen sharply this year as the disease to spread internationally, with demand for fuel expected to decline. Last week, the oil exporting group Opec agreed to cut production in order to support prices. However, the group also wanted non – Opec oil producers such as...

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MARKET UPDATE

Posted by on Mar 2, 2020 in AGM News | 0 comments

MARKET UPDATE

There isn’t too much to report this week as both old and new crop markets remain under pressure. Trade is difficult as the spread of Coronavirus continues to limit global demand in the short term and there are no major weather stories to report of. The value of sterling is still erratic – it initially firmed at the start of the year but has since dropped. The coronavirus outbreak has caused concern surrounding European trade with China, particularly in the manufacturing sector which has subsequently knocked the value of the euro....

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£200.00/T?

Posted by on Feb 26, 2020 in AGM News | 0 comments

£200.00/T?

The latest estimates from the AHDB have forecast this season’s wheat acreage at 1.5 million hectares. If realised, this will be the smallest UK area for almost forty years, since 1981. It is also a 17% decline on the area drilled last season for the bumper 2019 harvest. The above figure accounts for 287,000 hectares of spring wheat, the majority of which is yet to be drilled as the poor weather continues. With such a heavy reliance on a successful spring, it is difficult to estimate total UK wheat production this harvest – we could be...

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Market Update

Posted by on Feb 24, 2020 in AGM News | 0 comments

Market Update

AHDB released a revised version of their Early Bird Planting Survey which takes place each autumn to assess national cropping intentions. To review the report in full, please see: https://ahdb.org.uk/cereals-oilseeds/early-bird-survey The total area forecast to be planted with wheat is 1.5 million hectares – the smallest acreage since 1981. This a 17% decline on the 2019 area and a 7% decline since the initial survey in November. This figure is already being criticised by the trade as independent estimates believe it to be much...

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Market Update

Posted by on Feb 17, 2020 in AGM News | 0 comments

Market Update

The Euro has fallen to its lowest level against the dollar since April 2017 at $1.08. This is thought to be due to the concerns surrounding the spread of coronavirus weighing heavily on the markets. Significantly, the pound broke the 1.20 mark against the euro last week. This morning, it is trading at 1.2028, the highest level seen since June 2016. Despite my constant reminder to concentrate on “the bigger picture” instead of the view from the tractor cab, the relationship between new crop UK wheat futures and UK rainfall...

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THE CHINA SYNDROME

Posted by on Feb 12, 2020 in AGM News | 0 comments

THE CHINA SYNDROME

Just when you thought it was safe to go outside, along comes storm Ciara and puts all the good work that was done on the land and in the potential wheat field the week before back in the ‘bin’.  Add to our cropping issues, the continued Coronavirus problems and its impact on the global stock and commodity markets and therefore the physical trade and movement of money, goods and people around the world, and there are more than just dark rain clouds around. Since the first reported death on January 11th, the Shanghai stock...

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2020 CLOUDY VISION

Posted by on Feb 12, 2020 in AGM News | 0 comments

2020 CLOUDY VISION

So, here we are, New Year, New Government, Brexit Done! But not much in the ‘Farming World’ is any clearer than it was in 2019.  The relative firmness of the pre-Christmas wheat market has continued through into the new year as it becomes apparent that consumers (millers and feed compounders) have a significant amount of wheat to purchase for delivery January through to the End of June.  The ex-farm value of wheat has therefore remained firm throughout the first half of January and typically bids that are being refused on farm...

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HEDGE YOUR BETS

Posted by on Feb 12, 2020 in AGM News | 0 comments

HEDGE YOUR BETS

One month on from our article ‘Contrarian Economics’ written for October and the price of spot feed wheat on farm in Yorkshire has risen £10.00 per tonne.  The Politicians living in the ‘southeast bubble’ remain out of step with the rest of the country who are sick to the back teeth of Brexit, have voted for yet another extension all be it a ‘Flex tension’.  For the grain trade and cereal farmers this has allowed further exports of our potential surplus crop as sterling continues to flatline at 1.16 Euro and 1.28 US...

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