Week Beginning Monday 3rd July 2017

• The London LIFFE wheat future for July 17 is valued at £145.65/T this morning – this is £2.00/T higher than the week previous.
• The London LIFFE wheat future for November 17 is currently valued at £150.50/T. This is £5.50/T higher than the opening trade a week ago. The future has gained just over £4.50/T over the last couple of working days alone.
• The pound is currently valued at 1.1393 against the Euro. Highly anticipated data from the USDA on Friday has significantly firmed the market this morning.

Here’s what you need to know from the Acreage Report:

• Corn planted area for all purposes in 2017 is estimated at 90.9 million acres, a 3% decrease on last year. The area harvested for grain is estimated at 83.5 million acres, a 4% decrease on last year.
• Soybean planted area for 2017 is estimated at a record high of 89.5 million acres, a 7% increase on last year.
• All wheat planted area for 2017 is estimated at 45.7 million acres, a 9% decrease on last year. This is the lowest all wheat planted area on record since records began in 1919. To view the report in full via the USA please see: http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/current/Acre/Acre-06-30-2017.pdf

Here’s what you need to know from the Grain Stocks Report:

• It is worth noting that the amount of winter wheat planted is 32.8 million acres, a 9% reduction on last year. The amount of spring wheat planted is 10.9 million acres, a 6% reduction on last year.
• Corn stocks in all positions on the 1^st June 2017 totalled 5.23 billion bushels, an 11% increase on the year previous. There is a 15% increase in the amount stored on farms from the year previous.
• Soybeans stored in all positions on the 1^st June 2017 totalled 963 million bushels, also an 11%increase on the year previous. There is an 18% increase on the amount stored on farms from the year previous.
• Old crop all wheat stocks stored in all positions on the 1^st June 2017 totalled 36.3 million bushels, a 31% increase on the year previous. There is a 51% increase on the amount stored on farms from the year previous. To review the report in full, please see: http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/current/GraiStoc/GraiStoc-06-30-2017.pdf

Although the above numbers combined don’t exactly scream “bullish”, trade expectations at the beginning of last week prior to the report’s release expected a larger spring wheat crop, a significantly larger soybean crop and higher stock figures. As a result, the numbers have certainly firmed the markets as we enter a new week. However, it is important to remember that because of tomorrow’s 4^th of July celebrations disrupting the trade over in the US, the European market could potentially be getting a little carried away.  

Meanwhile, this year’s European barley harvest is now well underway for many and reports are mixed.

According to the HGCA, the Spanish barley crop is particularly average due to ongoing dryness. Early forecasts have already estimated poor spring and winter barley crops and early twitter based reports are suggesting that both yield and quality are firmly below average.

Spain is a key home for UK barley – throughout the 2015/2016 trading season, the UK exported more than 550,000 tonnes of barley to Spain. Depending on currency movements going forward as Brexit talks continue, Spain could once again provide the UK with a potential export opportunity.