World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates from the US Department of Agriculture: September Highlights

WHEAT:

• Global wheat production is raised by 3M/T to a record 708.9M/T. European wheat production is raised by 1.5M/T.
• Global wheat consumption is lowered on reduced usage.
• Global wheat trade (trade between countries) is forecast higher on increased demand from Egypt, Iran and Brazil.
• Global wheat stocks are set to increase.

MAIZE CORN:

• Global stocks are forecast 1.3M/T higher on increased production and reduced consumption.

OILSEEDS:

• Global oilseed production is projected at 495.1M/T, a 2M/T on last month’s estimates.
• USA production is forecast lower (now at harvest).
• South American production is forecast lower (not yet planted).
• Chinese production is predicted 0.3M/T lower due to severe yield damage caused by excess rainfall. If realised, this would be the smallest crop since 1992/93 (China are one of the biggest oilseed importers in the world).
• Higher OSR production forecast for Europe.
• Global stocks are forecast at 81.2M/T, 0.5M/T higher than last month’s estimate.

SUMMARY:

• The world feed grain harvest (maize corn and wheat) is in the bag and the world is awash with feed grains – get some feed wheat sold!
• Oilseed supply and demand is in the balance – figures are reliant on a crop which is not yet sown. Hang on to your OSR there may be fun ahead!